Crimea River

.....and Comrade Timberlake. Sorry.

Russia and its people are fascinating to me. The country is so vast that there are still unexplored areas (Siberian Arctic Islands, anyone?) and a family was cut off from any kind of contact for 40 years (this is the latest video known about the last surviving member of the family. Sorry it's from Vice, but it's a decent video). And the people? Well, no question about it.

Why am I writing about this? Well, there are a lot of misconceptions about the whole Russia-Ukraine situation and I'm delusional enough to feel like I have a misplaced duty to clear up the misconceptions, which probably mean I should do something with my life and get a hobby or something. Yes, I can be a useless asshole sometimes.

This is a rough summary to what has happened and is happening in Ukraine. I say "rough" and "summary" because if you want a detailed explanation, we have to go back to maybe a few decades earlier and well, with my short attention span, that is just not possible AND I'm not very well-versed in this actually, but I'll try anyway.

•  Ukraine had a corrupt, pro-Russian president up until last month, when the Ukrainian parliament voted against keeping him on his seat. 
• Now, there are lots of reasons why he was voted out, but this is one of the major reasons - Ukraine has been experiencing an economic downturn for quite some time and unemployment rate increases rapidly over the years. Ukraine asked the EU for $20 billion in loans and aid, but EU was only willing to offer €610 million in loans (about $840 million), and requesting that Ukraine make major changes to its laws and regulations, and to address concerns on a few issues, including the imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko and Yuriy Lutsenko (I'll get back to them later).
• Russia had also offered a loan, a $15 billion loan, and also thrown in cheaper gas prices and no request to change the laws and regulations like EU did to the mix. 
• Now for reasons that are murky to me (because I'm a dumb-dumb), Ukraine initiated an Association Agreement with the EU, and Russia promptly halted all imports from Ukraine to the country. This was seen as a move to block Ukraine from signing a free trade agreement with the EU. 
• Most of the western world think that most Ukrainians are pushing for the EU deal instead of the Russian deal, because as a member of the EU, Ukrainians will be protected from threats and such  BUT here's a twist, Ukraine has never been invited to join EU, only to sign the AA deal. Plus, EU can never afford another poor country and the rich western European countries won't allow it. 
• Now you might think, why isn't Ukraine taking the Russian deal and here's the tricky part. Russia has a lot of assets in Ukraine; e.g. pipelines all over Ukraine, massive warm water ports (Sevastopol is one of them, which is situated in Crimea), and military bases. All these were made possible with Yanukovych at the top. If Putin thinks that $15 billion is necessary to protect Russia's assets in Ukraine, then it must be nothing to them. And most Russian deals only benefit the people at the top (like most politicians in most corrupt countries). Either way, Ukraine was fucked, but they didn't know which was the least painful. 
• To put things into perspective, here's a photo of the Russian pipelines through Ukraine land

 

• And here's a photo of the oil and gas exported by Russia to the whole of Europe

• If my source is correct. Here's another reliable source. Russia supplies almost 80% of Western Europe's (and EU) energy needs. And that's another tricky part. 
• What most people don't realise is that Putin is a very smart man. The western countries have set a precedence (Serbia and Kosovo, remember) and Putin is just doing everything that has been done before, in a sneakier way. He puts his military troops in Crimea not because he wants to start a WW3, which is costly and something Russia can surely afford but don't want to, but because Russia feels the need to protect its assets by instilling fear. The problem is, Crimea is in Ukrainian territory, even though most people in Crimea is of Russian descent. But since Putin is a dick, he doesn't care about borders and shit so it looks like an invasion to the outside world.
• What about the 3 deaths, you might ask? Well, one died in a clash between pro-Russian and pro-European protesters, and 2 people were shot in another clash. The military troops have never fired a shot, as far as I know.
• Now here's another issue. Russia is a permanent member on UN's Security Council, which means it has a veto power to block any UN resolution. Now you have to remember that UN was set up to prevent another world war. Not to mention that not giving what Russia wants will mean economic backlash to most of Europe as well. They might try to isolate Russia to bring down its economy, but, like I said, EU's main energy supplier is Russia, and unless EU is willing to pay more by exporting from other countries, they can't isolate Russia. And I don't think they want to pay more. 
• EU and USA will make the usual noise, but they will do nothing. Besides, they need to keep an amicable relationship with Russia, as Russia has closer ties with most middle eastern countries AND countries that have nuclear weapons. 
• The most they can do is impose sanctions on a few selected Russian officials, as a cosmetic, face-saving measure. You know, to show to the world that they have balls but yeah, it's mostly for show.
• Edit: Called it. No surprise though.

• So right now, the people in Crimea are voting for a referendum, which gives them not much of a choice. 

• Crimea will unsurprisingly vote for independence, trust me.
• Edit: Called it. Everyone knew though.
• 
• Now, you might ask, why aren't the Ukrainians fighting against the Russians? You see, the tensions are high in Ukraine right now. The loyalty is divided, and most of them are confused on whom should they place their trust. They hate most of the politicians there, even the ones they voted under democracy, like Yulia Tymoshenko and Yuriy Lutsenko, the two people I've mentioned above. Both Tymoshenko and Lutsenko are as corrupt as Yanukovych, though not as bad. And to make matters worse, Russian agents are stirring up troubles and spreading propagandas everywhere they go. To say that it's bad out there in Ukraine is putting it mildly.
• And there's a theory about MH370 that says Russia is seeking China's support, which I believe might be inaccurate. China and Russia have business deals together, true, but I see their relationship as more of "mutual-economic-benefit, as-long-as-you-don't-shit-on-me-I-won't-shit-on-you" type. Are they political allies? Wellll, it's hard to say. I used to believe they were, I still believe they are, especially since China usually backs Russia in Syria-related votes but China's abstinence from yesterday's voting  speaks volume. I don't think that matters much though, as Russia is a major superpower. They don't cater to anyone except their own whims. 
• Everytime I see a photo of Putin, I would immediately think of this

What a dick.

That is all. I'm open to corrections and criticisms because I believe the situation is more complex than I can imagine.